Table 1 Transition probabilities of each treatment strategy

Stage A (asymptomatic) to Stage B (heart failure)

 Standard therapy^a

0.0027 / 0.0161

 Standard therapy + pioglitazone^a

0.0039 / 0.0304

 Standard therapy + SGLT2i^a

0.0018 / 0.0109

 Standard therapy + GLP-1A^a

0.0024 / 0.0151

Stage A (asymptomatic) to Stage C (coronary artery disease or stroke)

 Standard therapy^b

0.0078 / 0.0196

 Standard therapy + pioglitazone^ba

0.0050 / 0.0102

 Standard therapy + SGLT2i^ba

0.0059 / 0.0111

 Standard therapy + GLP-1A^ba

0.0057 / 0.0110

Stage A (asymptomatic) to Stage D (death)

 Standard therapy^b

0.0029 / 0.0091

 Standard therapy + pioglitazone^ba

0.0027 / 0.0088

 Standard therapy + SGLT2i^ba

0.0022 / 0.0085

 Standard therapy + GLP-1A^ba

0.0021 / 0.0085

Stage B (heart failure) to Stage C (coronary artery disease or stroke)

 Standard therapy^de

0.0811 / 0.1551

 Standard therapy + pioglitazone

^(nru)

 Standard therapy + SGLT2i^d

0.0800 / 0.1507

 Standard therapy + GLP-1A^e

0.0797 / 0.1510

Stage B (heart failure) to Stage D (death)

 Standard therapy^de

0.1400 / 0.1502

 Standard therapy + pioglitazone

^(nru)

 Standard therapy + SGLT2i^d

0.1187 / 0.1328

 Standard therapy + GLP-1A^e

0.1319 / 0.1486

Stage C (coronary artery disease or stroke) to Stage B (heart failure)

 Standard therapy^c

0.0466 / 0.0765

 Standard therapy + pioglitazone^ca

0.0707 / 0.0912

 Standard therapy + SGLT2i^ca

0.0331 / 0.0488

 Standard therapy + GLP-1A^ca

0.0490 / 0.0617

Stage C (coronary artery disease or stroke) to Stage D (death)

 Standard therapy^c

0.0399 / 0.0618

 Standard therapy + pioglitazone^ca

0.0327 / 0.0498

 Standard therapy + SGLT2i^ca

0.0309 / 0.0480

 Standard therapy + GLP-1A^ca

0.0301 / 0.0478