Table 1 Model Inputs and sources
Statistic variable | Base case | SD/(CI) | Distribution | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Annual discount rate | 0.05 | (0.03–0.12) | Beta | |
Time Horizon(years) | 15 | (5–25) | ||
Efficacy Parameters(PFS) | HR | |||
Palbociclib + Letrozole vs. Letrozole | 0.49 | (0.32–0.75) | LogNormal | (12) |
Ribociclib + Letrozole vs. Letrozole | 0.57 | (0.46–0.7) | LogNormal | (29) |
Efficacy Parameters(OS) | HR | |||
Palbociclib + Letrozole vs. Letrozole | 0.897 | (0.623–1.294) | LogNormal | (12) |
Ribociclib + Letrozole vs. Letrozole | 0.75 | (0.52–1.08) | LogNormal | (29) |
Adverse Events Costs(T) | ||||
Palbociclib + Letrozole | 21.225 | ± 4.245 | Gamma | (33), |
Letrozole | 0.775 | ± 0.154 | Gamma | (33), Survey and Calibration |
Ribociclib + Letrozole | 23.194 | ± 4.638 | Gamma | (33), Survey and Calibration |
Management and Monitoring Costs(T) | ||||
GP Visits | 2.344 | Survey and Calibration | ||
Oncologist Visit | 2.841 | Survey and Calibration | ||
Computed Tomography | 9.136 | Survey and Calibration | ||
Bone scintigraphy | 22.540 | Survey and Calibration | ||
hospitalizations | 18.375 | Survey and Calibration | ||
Laboratory Tests | 3.064 | Survey and Calibration | ||
Monthly Medications Costs(T) | ||||
Palbociclib (Foreign Brand 1) | 3189.911 | ± 637.982 | Gamma | Survey |
Palbociclib (Foreign Brand 2) | 2188.427 | ± 437.685 | Gamma | Survey |
Palbociclib (Iranian Brand) | 342.73 | ± 68.545 | Gamma | FDA |
Letrozole (Iranian Brand) | 2.687 | ± 0.537 | Gamma | FDA |
Letrozole (Foreign Brand) | 8.011 | ± 1.602 | Gamma | FDA |
Ribociclib | 3938.131 | ± 791.543 | Gamma | Survey |
Utilities | ||||
PF | 0.83205 | ± 0.00655 | Beta | (21) |
PD | 0.505 | ± 0.0505 | Beta | (21) |